It might not surprise anyone to see investment banking listed as one of the 10 most risky industries for 2009 but IBISWorld has added car retailing, tyre manufacturing, real estate agents and catering services to its list of vulnerable markets. For some industries though there is good news; nursing homes, veterinary services, diagnostic imaging, community health services and residential property owners and developers are cited as having the lowest risk this year.

The ageing population will have a positive influence on some industries. Nursing homes will see demand outstripping supply over the short term in Australia. Strong growth in the 70 plus demographic will continue to propel growth in nursing homes, explained Robert Bryant, IBISWorld general manager (Australia), with strong government funding helping to stabilise the sector and mitigate risk.

Also benefiting from the rapidly ageing population is diagnostic imaging, which also receives a high level of assistance with Medicare. New technology is expanding the services it offers and ensuring the sector remains in the growth phase of its life cycle.

Bryant expects that poor housing affordability and high population growth will benefit residential property operators and developers this year, along with government assistance in the form of rent assistance to low-income tenants. Other sectors which will be low risk in 2009, according to IBISWorld, include child care and cosmetics.

It may seem surprising that the collapse of the ABC group has actually lowered the risk for the rest of the child care industry. Not all of ABCÍs centres will be purchased, the result of which will be limited supply in a sector experiencing heavy demand and growing government funding. While revenue growth will be slow, prospects for carers are good and ABCÍs exit means many centres with established infrastructure and clients may be available to purchase at fire-sale prices. Although they might seem discretionary in nature, cosmetics are a luxury consumers are reluctant to give up, even in times of economic distress.

However the downturn will see other industry players at risk. Bryant said car manufacturers will be forced to sell cars at extremely low margins under pressure from manufacturers which are threatening dealers with cancelling their franchise agreements if they donÍt meet quotas. The tyre industry will suffer from the plight of the car business with falling discretionary spending and less credit set to persuade consumers to resist changing tyres often. Low cost Asian imports will also impact on the Australian market.

Real estate agents will be fighting their corner as sales, and transaction values, drop in the property market. Bryant said that while house prices will decline, sales will not respond with any rise until possibly late next year. Much lower demand for catering services from the financial and resources industries will hit this sector hard, as well as poor demand for catering at sports and other major events as attendances fall in 2009 while low-cost importers, fierce competition and a downturn in the construction cycle will impact on the tool industry, according to IBISWorld.

While IBISWorldÍs risk forecasts take historical data into account, they largely look ahead and consider vital information about the dynamic business environment and influencing factors which will be critical to each industryÍs future performance. Factors taken into account include an industryÍs life cycle, level of competition, trade exposure, external assistance, growth risk, macroeconomic variables and non-economic sensitivities.

For more information and analysis on any of AustraliaÍs 500 industries, log onto www.ibisworld.com.au or telephone (03) 9650 2166.